Okun's Law Formula

ΔU = -k × (ΔY - ΔY*)

Where ΔU is the change in unemployment rate, k is Okun's coefficient (typically 0.5), ΔY is actual GDP growth, and ΔY* is potential GDP growth.

ΔU - Unemployment Change

The predicted change in the unemployment rate based on GDP growth differences.

ΔY - Actual GDP Growth

The actual percentage change in Gross Domestic Product from one period to another.

ΔY* - Potential GDP Growth

The maximum sustainable growth rate an economy can achieve without inflation.

k - Okun's Coefficient

A coefficient representing the relationship between GDP and unemployment (typically 0.5).

Example Scenarios

Expanding Economy

Actual GDP: 4.0%
Potential GDP: 2.5%
Result: Unemployment ↓ 0.75%

Recession Scenario

Actual GDP: -2.0%
Potential GDP: 2.5%
Result: Unemployment ↑ 2.25%

Stable Growth

Actual GDP: 2.5%
Potential GDP: 2.5%
Result: No change in unemployment

Historical Okun's Law Coefficients

Country Okun Coefficient (k) Period Reliability
United States 0.5 1948-2023 High
European Union 0.4 1995-2023 Medium
Japan 0.3 1980-2023 Medium
China 0.2 1990-2023 Low
United Kingdom 0.45 1971-2023 High

Understanding Okun's Law

What is Okun's Law?

Okun's Law describes the empirical relationship between unemployment and GDP growth, showing that for every 1% increase in unemployment, GDP falls by about 2%.

Economic Indicator

Used by economists and policymakers to predict unemployment changes based on economic growth and vice versa.

Limitations

The relationship isn't perfect and varies across countries and time periods. Other factors like productivity also matter.

Practical Applications

Used in macroeconomic forecasting, policy analysis, and understanding business cycle fluctuations.

Historical Context

First proposed by Arthur Okun in 1962 based on US data from 1947-1960.

Global Variations

Different countries have different Okun coefficients based on labor market flexibility and economic structure.